Learn
How this asset class actually prices. What a contract is, what it settles against, and what an edge is worth once you have paid to cross the spread.
Topics
ExplainerPrediction markets 101
What the instrument is, what the price means, what decides it, and the vocabulary that goes with all of it.
Kosmos Research- Guide
Polymarket Arbitrage: How It Works, Risks, and Examples
Learn how Polymarket arbitrage works across YES/NO and Kalshi markets, including fees, slippage, contract risk, bots, and a live calculator.
Matthew Figula - Comparison
Best Polymarket Analytics Tools in 2026: 10 Platforms Ranked
Kosmos is our pick for the best overall Polymarket analytics platform because it brings the market, competing venue, liquidity, news, traders, contract, related assets, AI research, and trade path into one workspace. Bravado remains better for advanced execution, Polywhaler for dedicated whale alerts, and Oddpool for developer-grade arbitrage data.
Matthew Figula - Comparison
Polymarket vs. Kalshi in 2026: Fees, Liquidity, Odds, and Markets
Kalshi is the stronger all-around platform for most U.S. users. Polymarket International is often better for politics, crypto, global events, and lower category-based fees. The best odds still change from market to market.
Matthew Figula - Comparison
Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting: 10 Key Differences
How sportsbooks and prediction markets differ in pricing, limits, fees, cash outs, liquidity, and trading freedom.
Matthew Figula - Guide
Positive Expected Value in Prediction Markets: How to Find +EV Trades
Learn how positive expected value works in prediction markets, why high-volume markets are harder to beat, and where mispriced contracts may appear.
Matthew Figula - Explainer
What you own when you own a contract
A contract that pays $1 if something happens and nothing if it doesn't. Everything interesting follows from that.
Kosmos Research - Explainer
How a contract resolves, and why that matters more than the price
Two venues can list the same question and settle it differently. The rulebook is the asset.
Kosmos Research - Explainer
Reading the book, not the last print
The quoted price is what one contract traded at. What you can fill in your size is a different number.
Kosmos Research - Explainer
You only get paid for disagreeing
Not from being right more often. From being right when the market disagrees, and knowing which domains those are.
Kosmos Research