What you own when you own a contract

A prediction market contract pays $1 if a stated event happens and $0 if it doesn't. That is the whole instrument. There is no coupon, no earnings, no terminal value to argue about: just a question, a resolution date, and a source that decides.

Because the payoff is fixed at a dollar, the price has only one sensible reading. A contract trading at 63¢ says the market thinks the event happens about 63% of the time. Buy it and you are not saying it will happen. You are saying it happens more than 63% of the time.

Pays

$1 / $0

binary, on a stated date

Price

≈ probability

before fees and funding

You own

the claim

not a proxy for it

Why the number is worth something

Anyone can publish a forecast. Almost nobody is repriced for being wrong. A market participant is repriced continuously, by people who lose money when their read is bad, which is a far harsher filter than a reputation.

That is why these prices tend to beat pundits, and why they move faster than commentary. The number is not an opinion about the world. It is what people were willing to pay to be right about it, a second ago.

What you are actually buying

• A position in your own judgment. Not the closest-correlated ticker. The proposition itself.
• A defined maximum loss. You cannot lose more than you paid, which is not true of most instruments that express the same view.
• A settlement you did not write. The resolution source and its rulebook decide, and reading them is part of the trade.

The last one is where most of the surprises live, and it is the subject of the next piece.