# Kosmos > The intelligence layer for prediction markets: every venue, the news that moves it, and the people trading it, in one feed. Kosmos indexes event contracts across Polymarket, Kalshi and whatever lists next, links each move to the news behind it, and scores the people trading them. A prediction-market contract pays $1 if a stated event happens and $0 if it does not, so its price is a probability — repriced every second by people with money on the line, which makes it the only forecast that costs something to be wrong about. What the asset class still lacks is the layer above the data: which contract deserves attention, what it actually settles against, why it moved, and how sure to be. That is what we are building. The blog runs on two independent axes. Tabs are content type — Kosmos (thesis and market notes), Learn (explainers, guides and comparisons). Topics are subject, and cut across the technical tabs. Every article is available as clean markdown: append `.md` to any article URL. The links below already point at the markdown. There is an RSS feed for the whole blog and one per tab, each carrying full article content. ## Blog indexes - [The Kosmos Blog](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog): What the team building the intelligence layer for prediction markets believes about the asset class, and what it reads into the tape. - [Learn](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/learn): Prediction markets from the instrument up: what a contract pays, what decides it, what the book costs you, and what counts as an edge. ## Kosmos — thesis and market notes - [Bloomberg didn't win by putting prices on one screen](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/bloomberg-didnt-win-by-putting-prices-on-one-screen.md): The terminal sold confidence, not data. Forty years later the raw material is free and the confidence is still scarce. (Manifesto, Jul 29, 2026, 7 min read) - [Why can't Kalshi or Polymarket build Kosmos?](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/kalshi-will-never-show-you-polymarkets-price.md): NYSE didn't build the terminal. DraftKings won't show FanDuel's line. A venue cannot be neutral about its own order flow, and neutrality is the product. (Manifesto, Aug 12, 2026, 3 min read) ## Learn - [Prediction markets 101](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/prediction-markets-101.md): What the instrument is, what the price means, what decides it, and the vocabulary that goes with all of it. (Explainer, Aug 5, 2026, 12 min read) - [Polymarket Arbitrage: How It Works, Risks, and Examples](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/polymarket-arbitrage.md): Learn how Polymarket arbitrage works across YES/NO and Kalshi markets, including fees, slippage, contract risk, bots, and a live calculator. (Guide, Aug 7, 2026, 14 min read) - [Best Polymarket Analytics Tools in 2026: 10 Platforms Ranked](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/best-polymarket-analytics-tools.md): Kosmos is our pick for the best overall Polymarket analytics platform because it brings the market, competing venue, liquidity, news, traders, contract, related assets, AI research, and trade path into one workspace. Bravado remains better for advanced execution, Polywhaler for dedicated whale alerts, and Oddpool for developer-grade arbitrage data. (Comparison, Aug 6, 2026, 32 min read) - [Polymarket vs. Kalshi in 2026: Fees, Liquidity, Odds, and Markets](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/polymarket-vs-kalshi.md): Kalshi is the stronger all-around platform for most U.S. users. Polymarket International is often better for politics, crypto, global events, and lower category-based fees. The best odds still change from market to market. (Comparison, Aug 6, 2026, 22 min read) - [Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting: 10 Key Differences](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/prediction-markets-vs-sports-betting.md): How sportsbooks and prediction markets differ in pricing, limits, fees, cash outs, liquidity, and trading freedom. (Comparison, Aug 6, 2026, 17 min read) - [Positive Expected Value in Prediction Markets: How to Find +EV Trades](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/positive-expected-value-prediction-markets.md): Learn how positive expected value works in prediction markets, why high-volume markets are harder to beat, and where mispriced contracts may appear. (Guide, Aug 6, 2026, 14 min read) - [What you own when you own a contract](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/what-you-own-when-you-own-a-contract.md): A contract that pays $1 if something happens and nothing if it doesn't. Everything interesting follows from that. (Explainer, Jun 24, 2026, 4 min read) - [How a contract resolves, and why that matters more than the price](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/how-a-contract-resolves.md): Two venues can list the same question and settle it differently. The rulebook is the asset. (Explainer, Jun 18, 2026, 5 min read) - [Reading the book, not the last print](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/reading-the-book-not-the-last-print.md): The quoted price is what one contract traded at. What you can fill in your size is a different number. (Explainer, Jun 12, 2026, 5 min read) - [You only get paid for disagreeing](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/you-only-get-paid-for-disagreeing.md): Not from being right more often. From being right when the market disagrees, and knowing which domains those are. (Explainer, Jun 6, 2026, 5 min read) ## Topics - [Market basics](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/topics/market-basics): What the instrument is, what the price means, and what you actually own when you hold it. (7 posts) - [Sports](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/topics/sports): Sports through the order book: how market pricing differs from the sportsbook, and what that does to limits, cash-outs, and value. (1 post) - [Algo betting](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/topics/algo-betting): Bots, scanners, and arbitrage: what automation does well, and where it quietly fails. (2 posts) - [Tools & analytics](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/topics/tools): The software layer above the exchanges: analytics platforms, trackers, scanners, and calculators — and what each one is actually for. (2 posts) - [Comparisons](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/topics/comparisons): Named venues and products, head to head, with the working shown — and a verdict for the trader each one actually fits. (3 posts) - [Venues & fees](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/topics/venues): Where the same contract lists, what each venue charges to trade it, and which one is actually cheaper once you have crossed. (4 posts) - [Microstructure](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/topics/microstructure): Depth, spread, and what a position costs once you have crossed to get it. (6 posts) - [Calibration & edge](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/topics/calibration): Scoring a forecast honestly, and telling a real edge apart from a good run. (2 posts) ## Optional - [Kosmos](https://www.kosmos.fyi): the product — markets, news, and the people moving them, in one feed. - [All posts, RSS](https://www.kosmos.fyi/feed.xml): every post, newest first, full content included. - [Kosmos, RSS](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/feed.xml): the Kosmos tab only. - [Learn, RSS](https://www.kosmos.fyi/blog/learn/feed.xml): the Learn tab only. - [Sitemap](https://www.kosmos.fyi/sitemap.xml): every indexable URL.