Kosmos Research

The prediction market opportunity

July 2026 reached $17.3B in reported volume. Annualized at that pace, that is $207B. This is a run rate, not a forecast.

Data through Aug 13, 2026

$17.3B

reported volume in July 2026. $207B annualized at the same pace.

201x

Quiet-period floor

$1.6M to $325M a day

$1.3B

Open interest

as of Aug 23, 2026

40

Venues recorded

across the full dataset

16

Venues over $1M

11 cleared $10M in July 2026

72%

Leader share

Kalshi

95%

Top-three share

July 2026

01

Market size

Monthly reported volume across recorded venues

Monthly reported volume

July 2026 reached $17B. Annualized at the same pace: $207B.

$4.3B$8.6B$13B$17B2024-07 · $202MJul 242024-08 · $247M2024-09 · $298M2024-10 · $1.4B2024-11 · $1.9B2024-12 · $1.1B2025-01 · $793MJan 252025-02 · $585M2025-03 · $807M2025-04 · $756M2025-05 · $963M2025-06 · $1.1B2025-07 · $959MJul 252025-08 · $983M2025-09 · $2.2B2025-10 · $4.0B2025-11 · $6.7B2025-12 · $8.2B2026-01 · $12BJan 262026-02 · $11B2026-03 · $11B2026-04 · $11B2026-05 · $11B2026-06 · $15B2026-07 · $17BJul 26$17B
MonthReported volumeMonthly change
2026-07$17.3B+17%
2026-06$14.8B+39%
2026-05$10.6B-1%
2026-04$10.7B-1%
2026-03$10.8B-2%
2026-02$11.1B-11%
2026-01$12.4B+50%
2025-12$8.2B+23%
2025-11$6.7B+65%
2025-10$4.0B+82%
2025-09$2.2B+126%
2025-08$983M+2%
02

Event peaks, higher floor

Big events are when volume breaks out. The peaks show the surge. The floor tracks quiet-period activity, now 201 times the September 2024 benchmark.

Peak volume around major events

The peak seven-day average near each event, compared with the median seven-day average in the earlier 60-day baseline window.

Peak vs baselinepeak divided by baselinePeak less baselinedaily dollar difference2024 election2024 US presidential election · 14.3x14.3x2024 US presidential election · $119M$119MMarch Madness 2025March Madness 2025 · 1.4x1.4xMarch Madness 2025 · $9.6M$9.6MNFL season 2025NFL 2025 kickoff · 2.1x2.1xNFL 2025 kickoff · $37.8M$37.8MCrypto crash, Oct 2025October 2025 crypto drawdown · 4.4x4.4xOctober 2025 crypto drawdown · $98.4M$98.4MSuper Bowl LXSuper Bowl LX · 2.0x2.0xSuper Bowl LX · $238M$238MMarch Madness 2026March Madness 2026 · 1.1x1.1xMarch Madness 2026 · $22.9M$22.9MWorld Cup 2026World Cup 2026 final · 2.0x2.0xWorld Cup 2026 final · $340M$340M
The 2024 election had the largest multiple. The 2026 World Cup had the largest dollar difference.
EventEarlier baselinePeakPeak vs baselinePeak less baseline
2024 US presidential election$8.9M$128M14.3x$119M
March Madness 2025$24.9M$34.6M1.4x$9.6M
NFL 2025 kickoff$34.7M$72.6M2.1x$37.8M
October 2025 crypto drawdown$29.1M$127M4.4x$98.4M
Super Bowl LX$251M$489M2.0x$238M
March Madness 2026$383M$406M1.1x$22.9M
World Cup 2026 final$355M$695M2.0x$340M

The quiet-period floor is now $325M a day

Seven-day average volume and the lowest seven-day average in each rolling three-month window. Each gridline is 10 times the one below it.

$1.0M$10.0M$100M$1.0B202420252026ElectionNFL seasonSuper BowlWorld Cup$435M a dayquiet floor $325M2024-01-07 · $665k a day · quiet floor $252k2024-02-04 · $1.1M a day · quiet floor $252k2024-03-03 · $881k a day · quiet floor $252k2024-03-31 · $1.0M a day · quiet floor $271k2024-04-28 · $924k a day · quiet floor $626k2024-05-26 · $1.5M a day · quiet floor $688k2024-06-23 · $2.1M a day · quiet floor $736k2024-07-21 · $7.3M a day · quiet floor $819k2024-08-18 · $7.1M a day · quiet floor $1.3M2024-09-15 · $11.3M a day · quiet floor $1.7M2024-10-13 · $39.8M a day · quiet floor $4.4M2024-11-10 · $112M a day · quiet floor $6.5M2024-12-08 · $35.9M a day · quiet floor $8.9M2025-01-05 · $30.3M a day · quiet floor $28.5M2025-02-02 · $18.0M a day · quiet floor $18.0M2025-03-02 · $22.0M a day · quiet floor $16.9M2025-03-30 · $32.9M a day · quiet floor $16.9M2025-04-27 · $22.0M a day · quiet floor $16.9M2025-05-25 · $29.3M a day · quiet floor $19.5M2025-06-22 · $36.5M a day · quiet floor $19.5M2025-07-20 · $26.2M a day · quiet floor $19.5M2025-08-17 · $30.6M a day · quiet floor $23.4M2025-09-14 · $63.8M a day · quiet floor $23.4M2025-10-12 · $117M a day · quiet floor $23.4M2025-11-09 · $202M a day · quiet floor $24.6M2025-12-07 · $249M a day · quiet floor $59.7M2026-01-04 · $347M a day · quiet floor $99.5M2026-02-01 · $489M a day · quiet floor $194M2026-03-01 · $413M a day · quiet floor $227M2026-03-29 · $323M a day · quiet floor $296M2026-04-26 · $373M a day · quiet floor $305M2026-05-24 · $343M a day · quiet floor $305M2026-06-21 · $577M a day · quiet floor $305M2026-07-19 · $546M a day · quiet floor $318M2026-08-13 · $435M a day · quiet floor $325M
Daily volumeQuiet-period floor
The floor is 201 times the September 2024 benchmark. It fell in early 2025, then resumed rising.
03

More venues, concentrated volume

16 venues cleared $1M in July 2026; the top three held 95%

More venues, concentrated volume

Venues above $1M in monthly volume and the share held by the largest venue.

Venues doing over $1M a month0182024-01 · 2 venues over $1M, 1 over $10M2024-02 · 2 venues over $1M, 1 over $10M2024-03 · 2 venues over $1M, 1 over $10M2024-04 · 2 venues over $1M, 1 over $10M2024-05 · 2 venues over $1M, 1 over $10M2024-06 · 2 venues over $1M, 1 over $10M2024-07 · 2 venues over $1M, 1 over $10M2024-08 · 2 venues over $1M, 2 over $10M2024-09 · 5 venues over $1M, 2 over $10M2024-10 · 5 venues over $1M, 5 over $10M2024-11 · 7 venues over $1M, 5 over $10M2024-12 · 6 venues over $1M, 5 over $10M2025-01 · 7 venues over $1M, 5 over $10M2025-02 · 7 venues over $1M, 6 over $10M2025-03 · 8 venues over $1M, 6 over $10M2025-04 · 8 venues over $1M, 6 over $10M2025-05 · 8 venues over $1M, 6 over $10M2025-06 · 8 venues over $1M, 6 over $10M2025-07 · 10 venues over $1M, 5 over $10M2025-08 · 10 venues over $1M, 6 over $10M2025-09 · 11 venues over $1M, 7 over $10M2025-10 · 10 venues over $1M, 9 over $10M2025-11 · 11 venues over $1M, 9 over $10M2025-12 · 14 venues over $1M, 11 over $10M2026-01 · 13 venues over $1M, 11 over $10M2026-02 · 13 venues over $1M, 9 over $10M2026-03 · 13 venues over $1M, 9 over $10M2026-04 · 12 venues over $1M, 7 over $10M2026-05 · 14 venues over $1M, 10 over $10M2026-06 · 18 venues over $1M, 11 over $10M2026-07 · 16 venues over $1M, 11 over $10M16Share held by the biggest venuewhichever one leads that month0%50%100%Lowest leader share 30%72%2024-012026-07
2 venues cleared $1M in January 2024. 16 did in July 2026, and 11 cleared $10M. The leader held 72% of reported volume and the top three held 95%.

Monthly volume share by venue

Venue share of reported monthly volume. Other combines every venue outside the three named series.

0%25%50%75%100%2024-01 · Kalshi 16%2024-01 · Polymarket 84%2024-02 · Kalshi 23%2024-02 · Polymarket 77%2024-03 · Kalshi 27%2024-03 · Polymarket 73%2024-04 · Kalshi 30%2024-04 · Polymarket 69%2024-04 · Other 1%2024-05 · Kalshi 20%2024-05 · Polymarket 79%2024-05 · Other 1%2024-06 · Kalshi 13%2024-06 · Polymarket 87%2024-06 · Other 0%2024-07 · Kalshi 4%2024-07 · Polymarket 96%2024-07 · Other 0%2024-08 · Kalshi 4%2024-08 · Polymarket 96%2024-08 · Other 0%2024-09 · Kalshi 3%2024-09 · Polymarket 90%2024-09 · Other 8%2024-10 · Kalshi 6%2024-10 · Polymarket 88%2024-10 · Other 6%2024-11 · Kalshi 26%2024-11 · Polymarket 71%2024-11 · Other 4%2024-12 · Kalshi 8%2024-12 · Polymarket 85%2024-12 · Other 7%2025-01 · Kalshi 10%2025-01 · Polymarket 79%2025-01 · Other 11%2025-02 · Kalshi 13%2025-02 · Polymarket 71%2025-02 · Other 16%2025-03 · Kalshi 30%2025-03 · Polymarket 53%2025-03 · Other 16%2025-04 · Kalshi 24%2025-04 · Polymarket 59%2025-04 · Other 16%2025-05 · Kalshi 27%2025-05 · Polymarket 58%2025-05 · Other 15%2025-06 · Kalshi 29%2025-06 · Polymarket 53%2025-06 · Other 17%2025-07 · Kalshi 32%2025-07 · Polymarket 56%2025-07 · Other 13%2025-08 · Kalshi 36%2025-08 · Polymarket 51%2025-08 · Other 13%2025-09 · Kalshi 60%2025-09 · Polymarket 32%2025-09 · Other 8%2025-10 · Kalshi 49%2025-10 · Polymarket 37%2025-10 · Opinion 8%2025-10 · Other 6%2025-11 · Kalshi 39%2025-11 · Polymarket 28%2025-11 · Opinion 30%2025-11 · Other 3%2025-12 · Kalshi 33%2025-12 · Polymarket 28%2025-12 · Opinion 34%2025-12 · Other 5%2026-01 · Kalshi 30%2026-01 · Polymarket 27%2026-01 · Opinion 27%2026-01 · Other 16%2026-02 · Kalshi 38%2026-02 · Polymarket 32%2026-02 · Opinion 13%2026-02 · Other 17%2026-03 · Kalshi 49%2026-03 · Polymarket 44%2026-03 · Opinion 3%2026-03 · Other 4%2026-04 · Kalshi 50%2026-04 · Polymarket 39%2026-04 · Opinion 4%2026-04 · Other 8%2026-05 · Kalshi 58%2026-05 · Polymarket 30%2026-05 · Opinion 4%2026-05 · Other 8%2026-06 · Kalshi 64%2026-06 · Polymarket 29%2026-06 · Opinion 3%2026-06 · Other 5%2026-07 · Kalshi 72%2026-07 · Polymarket 21%2026-07 · Opinion 3%2026-07 · Other 5%Kalshi 72%Polymarket 21%2024-012026-07
KalshiPolymarketOpinionOther
In July 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for 93% of reported volume. Opinion peaked at 34% in December 2025 and was 3% in July 2026.

Overall reported volume moved unevenly across venues around the World Cup. Category volume in the 25 days after the final was 33% higher than the pre-tournament average.

Volume after the World Cup, by venue

Average daily volume in the 25 days after the final, compared with the six weeks before the tournament.

Venuebefore, afterChangeKalshi$201M, $360MKalshi · $201M a day before, $360M a day after · +79%+79%OPINION$12.1M, $12.7MOPINION · $12.1M a day before, $12.7M a day after · +5%+5%Polymarket International$105M, $71.0MPolymarket International · $105M a day before, $71.0M a day after · -32%-32%Predict Fun$12.6M, $5.8MPredict Fun · $12.6M a day before, $5.8M a day after · -54%-54%Limitless Exchange$8.4M, $1.5MLimitless Exchange · $8.4M a day before, $1.5M a day after · -82%-82%
Reported category volume was 33% higher in the 25-day post-final window, from $344M to $457Ma day. Results differed sharply by venue.
04

The infrastructure gap

ICE now offers normalized Polymarket data to institutional clients. That validates the data layer, but it covers one venue. The cross-venue problem remains.

Two contracts can describe the same event and still settle against different sources, times, or thresholds. Kosmos is building the cross-venue contract layer: mapping equivalent markets, normalizing their prices and rules, and making them usable in research and software.

05

Commercial proof

Revenue, strategic capital, data products, and contract supply

CompanyWhat happenedPrimary source
Robinhood$156M in event-contract revenue in Q2 2026 and $260M in the first half of 2026.Q2 2026 Form 10-Q
CoinbasePrediction-market contracts and revenue grew 106% quarter over quarter and crossed $100M in annualized revenue.Q2 2026 earnings
ICE$1.6B invested directly in Polymarket across October 2025 and March 2026.March 2026 release
ICE Data ServicesLaunched a product that normalizes Polymarket data for professional and institutional investors.February 2026 release
CFTCAbout 1,600 event contracts were certified in 2025, up from an average of about five a year from 2006 to 2020.March 2026 proposal

Robinhood reported nine-figure quarterly event-contract revenue. Coinbase crossed a nine-figure annualized prediction-market run rate. ICE invested $1.6B in Polymarket and launched an institutional data product.